Below is an unformatted transcript of my Tweet Essay on "Failure of Incentives", based on this Original Tweet Thread (#de_incentives). Also see my Master Index of Tweet Essays.
Go to the original thread to use links.
⦕ Failure of Incentives ⦖ #de_incentives
πMy claim: Economic incentives will have little effect on low birth rates. You can't bribe people into having more babies.
πΆπ + π° = πΆπ
Explored in a #dd_TweetEssay π§΅⇩
πΊπ» #dd_incentives #dd_BabyBust #dd_d #dd_e
➤ This 𧡠was prompted by an article in an official π¨π³#dd_cn news source. A professor laments the Chinese demographic crisis and offers the usual platitudes. Article
His suggestion: Maybe the birth crisis can be "solved" with tax breaks for parents.
Um, no. π€¦
➤ Government #dd_incentives for baby-making can take the form of—
① Tax breaks
② Direct cash payments ("baby bonus")
③ Subsidized daycare and other family-friendly services.
Nearly all such "solutions" require tons of π° that most governments don't have.
➤ Incentives don't work because people aren't dumb. Given the huge costs, risks and lost freedom of raising a child, anything the government can offer is a pittance.
What might work: Paying mothers a full salary for childrearing. But no government can afford that.
➤ Anyone who WAS swayed by a financial incentive might not be an appropriate parent.
e.g. π·πΊ#dd_RU offers a $8K bonus for a 2nd child. What is to prevent parents doing it for the money and neglecting the child thereafter?
➤ Evidence that incentives work is dubious, because there is no control group. There is only cherrypicking coincidences.
e.g. Incentive offered in 2013; birth rates rose in 2014
There's no proof one caused the other.
If rates fell in 2014, the government would have kept quiet.
➤ Couples who were ALREADY planning to have a second πΆ are happy to take the government's money, but there is little evidence that the incentive actually changed anyone's mind.
➤ Here is my 3-minute video on the subject from 2017: https://youtu.be/TWCP0qGVgKY
"Do government incentives improve birth rates?"
Filmed at Wayside Inn, Sudbury #dd_usMA
πΊπ» #ddv_incentives #dd_incentives #dd_video
➤ My January 2020 podcast episode on Government Birth Incentives (Episode 26, 25 min) youtu.be/SxDolYxrox8
πΊπ» #ddpc26 #dd_incentives #dd_d #dd_video #dd_audio #dd_BabyBust π #BabyBonus #BirthIncentives #BirthIncentive #ChildTaxCredit
https://twitter.com/DemographicDoom/status/1222241006902341632?s=20
➤ My 8-minute video from January 2017: "Can better government services improve birth rates?" https://youtu.be/ZDN-HgGT5YU
Talking about child care, etc.
Man dancing #ddv_childcare #dd_incentives #dd_childcare #dd_f
➤ π All my past Twitter mention of "Incentives"
Many articles on various government efforts to encourage births. Quite a collection! (Includes some unrelated #dd_perverse incentives.)
Standard hashtag: #dd_incentives π΄#ddoom_incentives
➤ The useless attempts continue...
π¨π³ Chinese government to create a “good matchmaking environment" π€¦ Article
πΊπ» #dd_incentives #dd_cn #dd_scmp
➤ π¨π³ One thing China could do that other countries can't is abduct women, inseminate them and force them to have babies. The children could be raised in ☭#BabyFarm's.
I wish I could say they would never do a thing like that, but their track record suggests they are capable.
➤ Short of forced childbearing, any incentive program is likely to fail in China like it has failed everywhere else.
➤ π¨π³πΆπ #BabyFactories are real in China, but they are criminal enterprises producing babies for adoption. No indication yet of state sponsorship. Daily Mail Article
πΊπ» #dd_babyfarm #dd_adoption #dd_dailymail #dd_cn #dd_d π #BabyFarm #BabyFactory
{Formatting completed:
{This blog post referenced in Tweet essay: 1/25/21}
{This blog post backed up to email: 1/25/21}
{This blog post visual backup to Twitter: 1/25/21}
