Below is a formatted transcript of my Tweet Essay on Asset Valuation, based on this Original Tweet Thread (#de_urban). Also see my Master Index of Tweet Essays.
⦕ 𝓤𝓻𝓫𝓪𝓷 𝓟𝓵𝓪𝓷𝓷𝓲𝓷𝓰 ⦖ — Is it dead? #de_urban
Prompted by @JuliaGalef, I listened to Ep4 of 🎙"Order Without Design" #OWD_04 by @DevonZuegel, interviewing an #dd_Urban Planning super-couple, Marie-Agnes & #AlainBertaud
🔊#4: Episode 4 Podcast and Transcript
My 🤔💭 in 🧵⇩
➤ 🇪🇬 Cairo traffic is 𝖎𝖓𝖘𝖆𝖓𝖊!😱 #dd_eg
Cairo has 2 million cars and 𝙣𝙤 [🔴🟡🟢]s! (At least I saw none.) At intersections 🚗🚛 just push in and sort themselves out.
I will 𝙣𝙚𝙫𝙚𝙧 return to 🇪🇬. Not just traffic but the general sense of lawlessness & chaos. 👉🔊#kcpc04
➤ 🇫🇷 It sounds like Paris🗼 will soon be suffering the #dd_Exodus disease, like NYC, SFO & Chicago.
Liberated from their offices by the 🦠, many Parisians may flee the high costs of 🗼 for the gentle life of the provinces🍷🍇🧀, leaving 🗼 in dire economic straits. #dd_fr
➤ 🇫🇷 We'll always have Paris... or will we?
If enough people leave, it may start a #dd_DoomLoop of urban decline. Remember the 🗼 riots of Dec. 2019? They could be back if economics get more out of whack.
🕺🏻 #dd_unrest #dd_fr #dd_exodus
➤ 🤔 The Golden Age of #UrbanPlanning may be past.
#dd_Urban planning happens mainly when cities are growing, not shrinking. Some are still growing but the ⭐s are fading (NYC, SFO, London...)
You can't (rationally) redevelop a waterfront if there are no new tenants to move in...
➤ 🇺🇸 E.g.—This project strikes me as unlikely to succeed: Morton Salt☂️ in Chicago. #dd_usIL
Chicago is shrinking & primed for #dd_bankrupt'cy. Office space is already distressed.
#dd_MyPrediction: Failure. Either failure to fund🚀 or failure to rent.
➤ 💀 What passes for #UrbanPlanning in a dying city is often desperate and expensive taxpayer-funded redevelopment projects intended to reverse the #dd_Exodus. The blind faith is "Build it and they will come," but no one has a clue if they will, and they probably won't.
➤Case in point: Dying Gary, Indiana 💀 built a gleaming convention center to try to revitalize its downtown. Didn't work, and it's been a burden to the city ever since. #dd_usIN
The "Bargaining" stage of the #FiveStagesOfGrief can be very expensive.
➤ 🇯🇵 The only realistic #UrbanPlanning for most #CitiesOfTheFuture🚀 is orderly downsizing.
...Like the Mayor of graying & shrinking #Toyama, Japan—mentioned in the 🎙—who wants to shut down the expensive suburbs and move the 👴👵 to the center city. That makes sense.
➤ 📉 Demographic trends:
⸻ 👶📉
⸻ 👴👵📈
⸻ Young people fleeing provinces for city
⸻ Lucrative taxpayers fleeing headline cities for smaller, cheaper ones
Losers: headline cities, small towns, rural areas
No so losers: mid-size cities
➤ 🏠🏠 Suburbs are in a weird place. They're still desirable places to live, but they are infrastructure 🔥𝖍𝖊𝖑𝖑🔥 because there is so much space between buildings. Cost to maintain aging roads/sewers/etc is huge.
You can see 🇯🇵Toyama mayor's position.
{Formatting complete: 1/23/21}
{This blog post referenced in Tweet essay: 1/23/21}
{This blog post backed up to email: 1/23/21}
{This blog post visual backup to Twitter: 1/23/21}
