Saturday, January 23, 2021

Urban Planning: Is It Dead? πŸ’€ ⸻ A Tweet Essay by Glenn Campbell

Below is a formatted transcript of my Tweet Essay on Asset Valuation, based on this Original Tweet Thread (#de_urban). Also see my Master Index of Tweet Essays.

⦕ 𝓀𝓻𝓫π“ͺ𝓷 π“Ÿπ“΅π“ͺ𝓷𝓷𝓲𝓷𝓰 ⦖ — Is it dead? #de_urban

Prompted by @JuliaGalef, I listened to Ep4 of πŸŽ™"Order Without Design" #OWD_04 by @DevonZuegel, interviewing an #dd_Urban Planning super-couple, Marie-Agnes & #AlainBertaud

πŸ”Š#4: Episode 4 Podcast and Transcript

My πŸ€”πŸ’­ in 🧡⇩

➤  πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡¬ Cairo traffic is π–Žπ–“π–˜π–†π–“π–Š!😱 #dd_eg

Cairo has 2 million cars and 𝙣𝙀 [πŸ”΄πŸŸ‘πŸŸ’]s! (At least I saw none.) At intersections πŸš—πŸš› just push in and sort themselves out.

I will π™£π™šπ™«π™šπ™§ return to πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡¬. Not just traffic but the general sense of lawlessness & chaos. πŸ‘‰πŸ”Š#kcpc04

➤ πŸ‡«πŸ‡· It sounds like ParisπŸ—Ό will soon be suffering the #dd_Exodus disease, like NYC, SFO & Chicago.

Liberated from their offices by the 🦠, many Parisians may flee the high costs of πŸ—Ό for the gentle life of the provincesπŸ·πŸ‡πŸ§€, leaving πŸ—Ό in dire economic straits. #dd_fr

➤ πŸ‡«πŸ‡· We'll always have Paris... or will we?

If enough people leave, it may start a #dd_DoomLoop of urban decline. Remember the πŸ—Ό riots of Dec. 2019? They could be back if economics get more out of whack.

πŸ•ΊπŸ»  #dd_unrest #dd_fr #dd_exodus

➤ πŸ€” The Golden Age of #UrbanPlanning may be past.

#dd_Urban planning happens mainly when cities are growing, not shrinking. Some are still growing but the ⭐s are fading (NYC, SFO, London...)

You can't (rationally) redevelop a waterfront if there are no new tenants to move in...

➤ πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ E.g.—This project strikes me as unlikely to succeed: Morton Salt☂️ in Chicago. #dd_usIL

Chicago is shrinking & primed for #dd_bankrupt'cy. Office space is already distressed.

#dd_MyPrediction: Failure. Either failure to fundπŸš€ or failure to rent.

Chicago Tribune Tweet

➤  πŸ’€ What passes for #UrbanPlanning in a dying city is often desperate and expensive taxpayer-funded redevelopment projects intended to reverse the #dd_Exodus. The blind faith is "Build it and they will come," but no one has a clue if they will, and they probably won't.

➤Case in point: Dying Gary, Indiana πŸ’€ built a gleaming convention center to try to revitalize its downtown. Didn't work, and it's been a burden to the city ever since. #dd_usIN

The "Bargaining" stage of the #FiveStagesOfGrief can be very expensive. 

Chicago Tribune Article

➤ πŸ‡―πŸ‡΅ The only realistic #UrbanPlanning for most #CitiesOfTheFutureπŸš€ is orderly downsizing.

...Like the Mayor of graying & shrinking #Toyama, Japan—mentioned in the πŸŽ™—who wants to shut down the expensive suburbs and move the πŸ‘΄πŸ‘΅ to the center city. That makes sense.

➤ πŸ“‰ Demographic trends:

⸻ πŸ‘ΆπŸ“‰

⸻ πŸ‘΄πŸ‘΅πŸ“ˆ

⸻ Young people fleeing provinces for city

⸻ Lucrative taxpayers fleeing headline cities for smaller, cheaper ones

Losers: headline cities, small towns, rural areas

No so losers: mid-size cities

➤ πŸ πŸ  Suburbs are in a weird place. They're still desirable places to live, but they are infrastructure πŸ”₯π–π–Šπ–‘π–‘πŸ”₯ because there is so much space between buildings. Cost to maintain aging roads/sewers/etc is huge.

You can see πŸ‡―πŸ‡΅Toyama mayor's position.

Link to Ponzi Scheme Thread

{Formatting complete: 1/23/21}
{This blog post referenced in Tweet essay: 1/23/21}
{This blog post backed up to email: 1/23/21}
{This blog post visual backup to Twitter: 1/23/21}